🌍 2035 Executive Summary

Scenarios & Strategic Outlook

By 2035, the global landscape will be shaped by the interplay of AI, climate change, and geopolitics.
Three plausible scenarios emerge:

This executive summary presents a probability-weighted outlook combining all three scenarios to guide strategic decision-making.

🔑 Key Insights for 2035

Global GDP → Expected to grow by ~18% from 2025 levels, but regional disparities persist.
AI Adoption → Moderate-to-high (~65% penetration), though fragmentation slows interoperability.
Climate Trajectory → Warming projected around +2.4 °C by 2100, increasing economic damages and disaster frequency.
Jobs & Skills → Net job losses of ~15% likely in low- and mid-skill sectors; massive reskilling efforts will be critical.
Inequality → Expected to widen slightly unless proactive redistribution and upskilling policies are implemented.
Energy Transition → On track for ~60% decarbonization by 2035, but net zero by 2050 remains unlikely without acceleration.
Geopolitics → Increasing regional blocs and moderate instability; limited global coordination.
Social Trust → Partial recovery possible, but misinformation and AI distrust remain key risks.

Scenario	Probability	Key Characteristics
Trust-Based Transformation	35%	Responsible AI, strong global cooperation, rapid sustainability gains
Tense Transition	45%	Fragmented AI ecosystems, uneven economic gains, rising climate costs
Turbulent Times	20%	Conflict, tech distrust, climate chaos, institutional fragility

Invest in Responsible AI
- Prioritize human-centered, transparent AI to build trust and ensure equitable adoption.
Accelerate Decarbonization
- Push investments in renewable energy, carbon capture, and climate adaptation technologies.
Strengthen Workforce Resilience
- Implement large-scale reskilling programs to offset automation-driven job losses.
Foster Global Cooperation
- Align AI ethics, cybersecurity standards, and climate policies to reduce fragmentation risks.
Prepare for Instability
- Build contingency plans for supply chain disruptions, cyber threats, and climate shocks.